Bienvenidos, Miami Open’s Elite Eight — Quotes from the 305
By Joey Dillon
The IX: Tennis Tuesday with Joey Dillon, March 25, 2025
Howdy, y’all and Happy Tennis Tuesday! Today is quarterfinals day at the Miami Open and after a tough first week, we have our four matchups!
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(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (9) Zheng Qinwen
Magda Linette vs. (6) Jasmine Paolini
Emma Raducanu vs. (4) Jessica Pegula
(WC) Alexandra Eala vs. (2) Iga Swiatek
I admit, I was a bit surprised to see about half of these names and not one matchup is one I would’ve predicted. While I do think there are clear favorites in each matchup, I do think we’re due for some really good tennis. Lets break down the matches.
1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (9) Zheng Qinwen
Head-to-head: Sabalenka leads 5-0
Aryna Sabalenka is on a mission after falling in her second Indian Wells final to Mirra Andreeva. To me, she’s looked to be the player that hasn’t been affected by the change of scenery from the Southern California desert to the humid Miami weather. She does spend quite a bit of her time in the area, especially in her off-season, so it’s not too much of a surprise to see her feel at home on the courts. Still, this is her third career Miami Open quarterfinal and she’s yet to make the semifinals. In her three matches, she’s only dropped 12 games, though she did benefit from a retirement in the third round. What was mighty impressive was her fourth rounder against defending champion Danielle Collins. The Belarussian was of course able to match/increase the Collins power, but she was finding great margin on her balls. The World No. 1 hasn’t had too many poor patches this past week and I think her confidence entering today will be pretty high.
She has the fortune of playing Zheng Qinwen, who she has a 5-0 record against — ironically all on hardcourts. Zheng has only won a single set against Sabalenka, which came in last year’s Wuhan final, but she’s also lost no sets en route to the quarterfinals. Her road so far has not only included three consecutive Americans but a routine opening set followed by a very close/tight second. The match will likely hinge on Sabalenka’s ability to control the pace, as Zheng can counter heavy shots with her quick footwork and ball placement. If Zheng can neutralize Sabalenka’s power early in rallies, she could find herself in a strong position, but she’s going to need to attack early in the opening set. However, if Sabalenka finds her rhythm and lands her big shots consistently, she could bulldoze through the match.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2 sets
Magda Linette vs. (6) Jasmine Paolini
Head-to-head: Linette leads 2-1
First up, we have Magda Linette, who caused the biggest upset of the tournament yesterday by knocking out Coco Gauff in straight sets. Her road to the quarterfinals has been built on some of her best wins all year — Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova, 2024 semifinalist Ekaterina Alexandrova and Linda Fruhvirtova before the Gauff victory. With the win, Linette not only advanced to her second-ever WTA 1000 quarterfinal (2024 Wuhan), she became the third-oldest player to score her first Top 3 victory. While the Pole does rely on staying steady to come through matches, she was helped immensely through errors by Gauff — something she won’t have the fortune of seeing from Jasmine Paolini.
Not only is Paolini consistent in her tennis game, but she also is in her results. Unfortunately, that could mean “early” losses as well. After a 2024 season that saw her break through reaching two Grand Slam quarterfinals and a WTA 1000 title in Dubai, the Italian was 0-4 in WTA 1000 round of 16 matches this year. Finally, the Italian broke that streak with a high-quality three-set win over Naomi Osaka to win three consecutive matches for the first time this year and make her first quarterfinal of 2025. While Paolini is also a steady, consistent player, I find her mental strength to be the big outlier in this matchup. Against Osaka, the Italian saved 12 of 15 break points, which I fear would possibly make Linette self-combust if that were to happen in their matchup. Though Linette does lead their head-to-head, I’m more than confident Paolini will tie things up to make her first WTA 1000 semifinal since her Dubai trophy.
Prediction: Paolini in straight sets
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Emma Raducanu vs. (4) Jessica Pegula
Head-to-head: Tied 1-1
I’m going to be real for a second. Though I think 95% of the public would agree with me, Emma Raducanu was not the Emma I had penciled in the quarterfinals. That being said, the Brit gritted out a super impressive third-set tiebreaker win over Emma Navarro in the second round and has looked in impressive form since. It should also be noted that the 2021 U.S. Open champion did benefit from a McCartney Kessler retirement in the third round and a struggling Amanda Anisimova in her next match. Side note, Miami Open, you must be kinder with your scheduling. Still, Raducanu has been staying aggressive and what I’ve really appreciated is that she’s moving forward often to take even more time away from her opponents.
Something that was even more shocking is that the Navarro win was Raducanu’s first Top 10 victory on a hardcourt and second-ever. Her first? Her quarterfinal opponent, Jessica Pegula, on the grass in Eastbourne last year. The American did have her own third-set tiebreak epic against Anna Kalinskaya but rebounded to easily knock out Marta Kostyuk to make her fourth consecutive Miami quarterfinal. The consistency of Pegula is what the American is most praised about, but what makes her so tough? She’s a beautiful counterpuncher with such great and clean ball-striking but her movement is the standout for me. You rarely see Pegula get knocked out of position and she covers the court extremely well with her speed and agility. However, that is something you might have to be on high alert for as Pegula was forced to retire in her doubles match on Sunday night. To me, it seemed more precautionary to focus on singles, but still anticipate Raducanu to exploit that as much as possible.
Prediction: Pegula in straight sets
Alexandra Eala vs. (2) Iga Swiatek
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, representation matters so much — especially in women’s tennis. We’ve had countries like Poland and Romania explode with fan support when their players broke through but I’m very curious what happens with the immediate ceiling destruction Alexandra Eala is producing in Miami. The Filipina not only took advantage of the wildcard given to her, but she’s produced numerous firsts for her country including the first Top 10 win when she upset Australian Open champion Madison Keys. The Rafa Nadal Academy product has yet to drop a set, which also includes a win over Jelena Ostapenko, and she did benefit from a fourth-round walkover from Paula Badosa. That should help give the teenager a fresher opportunity if she wants to break into the Top 100, which she needs one more win to do so. Unfortunately, Iga Swiatek is the player in her way.
Swiatek is the only other player remaining I’ve been nothing but impressed by after the first week. She’s another player that’s yet to drop a set but, like Sabalenka, she’s been tested in one set of all three of her matches. Her fourth-round win over Elina Svitolina, to me, was most impressive as she struggled with her forehand quite a bit and their two-setter took just over two hours. Still, the Pole was able to exploit Svitolina with the devastating angles she’s known for and really dominated well with her backhand when given the opportunity. While Swiatek will look to produce a better performance in the quarterfinals, I’m not sure she will need to. Between her game, motivation and perhaps the gravity of the moment for Eala, this could be the quickest quarterfinal of the bunch.
Prediction: Swiatek in straight sets.
On to links!
This Week in Women’s Tennis
The big news this past week came from the Professional Tennis Players Association, who slapped the two tours and the four Grand Slams with an antitrust lawsuit. The lawsuit centers around allegations that the ATP’s policies and structure restrict players’ ability to organize independently and collectively negotiate better terms, particularly in areas like tournament scheduling, prize money distribution, and player representation. Of course, the WTA released a statement condemning the lawsuit. This week’s must-read comes from Ben Rothenberg who interviewed PTPA Executive Director Ahmad Nassar:
Anca Todoni looks to be a player to keep an eye on for the clay season as the Romanian captured her third career WTA 125 title at the Megasaray Hotels Open Antalya 1. She defeated Leyre Romero Gormaz to win the singles crown, while the doubles title went to Maja Chwalinska and Anastasia Detiuc, who defeated Jesika Maleckova and Miriam Skoch.
Longtime WTA writer and “WTA Insider” Courtney Nguyen shared that she has left the WTA after almost a decade of sharing players’ stories. It will be a big void in terms of WTA storytelling:
The WTA profiled three player/coach partnerships that have adapted to today’s modern game and the technologies offered.
Not even a year after retiring, Alize Cornet is back training with plans to come back next month and has already secured a Roland Garros wildcard:
Monica Puig, the 2016 Olympic champion, penned an article about her decision to pursue the sport of triathlon after being forced to retire from tennis due to injuries.
I love Daria Saville on TikTok:
Dasha
— Owen (@kostekcanu) March 22, 2025pic.twitter.com/PptzVrKlCl
Eight of the Top 10 players will be making their way to Stuttgart to participate in the Porsche Tennis Grand Prix this year.
Danielle Collins was defending her title in Miami this week, but still had an eventful time off-court, saving an injured dog after being hit by a car and making plans to adopt them.
Tweet of the Week
It’s never too late…
Five at The IX: Miami Open Week 1
Q. You mentioned the word “standard” earlier, and I’m wondering what you kind of do and have done in your career to develop such a thing as your standard. Do you look back on old matches where you feel like you performed very well? Do you take a glance at your trophy cabinet? What do you do to develop the Coco Gauff standard?
COCO GAUFF: I honestly am not taking a look at the trophy cabinet. I am a good person of short-term memory when it comes to wins and losses. I don’t really dwell on a win too long, which is something I actually should do at least at the end of the year, but I’m very much a future mindset-driven person, which I think is a great thing, but also sometimes you can be too focused on the future where you forget to be present.
I think it’s a thing you have to find balance on, and as I go through my career, I continue trying to find that balance. But for me, I think it’s just trying to do the right things in practice and also trying to do those things in the match. Obviously, I have things that I know work.
But sometimes when you get to top level, like, you have to expand out of that. We all have our favorite patterns and favorite plays, and we all kind of know that of one another. But what makes the difference in sometimes that day is you doing something your opponent didn’t expect from that point. I think it’s just continuing to branch outside the box.
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Q. You said in your on-court interview that growing up you didn’t have sort of role models there or people to show you the way into a career. Can you just explain a little bit how it came about that you got the opportunity at the academy and how much credit they need to take, the people there, for you being able to take these steps forward?
ALEXANDRA EALA: The academy has been my home for the past seven years. Of course, my family should take credit for the foundation that they laid out before they sent me there.
But of course, the academy was able to build on that foundation in such a way that I’m able to be where I am now. And I think the combination of everything that I’ve been through since I started tennis is what has led to this moment and what has led to me having all these opportunities.
As for not having someone to look up to, I think that goes for not someone Filipino who has done huge things in tennis in the open era or something, but of course, there have been so many role models in my life. You know, inspiration doesn’t always have to come from someone big who did it in the Philippines.
For example, the young kids, the youth in the Philippines, they don’t need to take inspiration from me. They can take inspiration from anyone they want. You know, they can take inspiration from other things, which is what I did growing up.
Q. I heard you with the Tennis Channel, you were saying one of the things you were proudest of this match was that you fought through, fought for the match, and you might not have fought for this match a year ago. Can you delve into that a little bit more, the extra fight that you have?
NAOMI OSAKA: Yeah, I think last year, I don’t know, like, for me it’s really hard because last year I was coming back from, like, not even being in my greatest form. Does that make sense?
Like when I stopped playing, my last tournament was Tokyo, and I was ranked 40. I also didn’t really have the fight in me anymore. It’s really hard for me to describe, but…
I think a big basis of my game is fighting and just trying to stay as mentally strong as I can. Last year I had some good matches, but there were other matches where I felt like since I didn’t play perfect, it was really difficult to win, and I just couldn’t get over that hump.
This year I’ve played already a couple scrappy matches. I think the fight kind of got me over it. Then I realized, like, you need to play a lot of matches like that to be I guess one of the great ones.
So I’m hoping that I can continue.
Q. A question regarding No. 1. What did it feel like for you when you were No. 1? Now that you don’t have it, is it a case of desperately wanting to get it back or does it really matter to you? Is it a case of also ‘been there, done that’?
IGA SWIATEK: Well, of course it matters. Like, this is something we work for. But mathematically, it’s going to be tough for me to come back to No. 1 soon, even if I would win all the tournaments, I think.
So yeah, I mean, I kind of got over it. It was tough, like, in the Middle East swing because I realize I have this hole in my rankings because I didn’t play China swing. It’s not going to be possible to replace these points because I’ve been winning a lot that season. In early part of — sorry. I was winning a lot last year in early part of the season.
I’m just focusing on the work. If I’m going to play well, it’s going to come back. Also, Aryna is playing well. Like, no one expects her to drop suddenly. She’s doing good job. I think we’re both competing at, like, similar level. We both deserve to fight for the spot.
But it’s not like I’m thinking about it a lot. I’m more focusing on just improving as a tennis player and on my game. I think that’s the healthiest way to go.
Q. You were just saying about leaving everything on the court today and all you’ve done. I know you just touched on the recovery, but this is only one step and there is still a lot more to play for. What do you do to just bring yourself maybe down a little bit, maybe relax and get ready for what’s still to come, there is still another match and another match? How do you focus on that? Do you look too far ahead, also?
EMMA RADUCANU: No, I mean, it’s difficult. I think it’s amazing that we get a day in between, to be honest. I think it helps so much with the recovery.
I’m quite a big fan of these longer events, just because it gives us time to recover, especially, you know, by the time we finish everything, press, treatment, eating, by the time we get back and I’m second on, I’ll be home, like, 9:00 p.m., I think it’s great that I have a day off to recover.
I think this week I have been trying to keep it more relaxed, I would say, not necessarily being in the zone 100% of the time. Just, like, I’m learning how to throw an American football, so that has become my warmup.
So the first 30 minutes of my warmup is like sports day. It’s like American football, football, and then cornhole, and then, depending, either maybe some golf or something, like kick Frisbee.
That’s, like, been keeping me entertained, but it’s also a great pulse-raiser, because I find it easier to put more effort in when we’re playing American football and running to catch it rather than running in a straight line. It’s a lot more fun.
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