What’s at stake for each Final Four team — Final Four Bracket Breakdown

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To me, these are programs in essentially four separate buckets.

Let’s start with South Carolina. The Gamecocks are the defending champions, but they do not have a signature star on this team. For the better part of the last decade, they had a dominant force in the middle — Alaina Coates, A’ja Wilson, Aliyah Boston and Kamila Cardoso all served as mismatches from the jump for Dawn Staley‘s crew.

That role looked like it would belong to Ashlyn Watkins, but her ACL tear ended her season after 14 games. Nor is there an obviously dominant wing or guard, even with the caveat that I expect to cover numerous members of this team at the next level. Raven Johnson was supposed to be the heir apparent to the program — Boston told us so after the 2023 Final Four loss to Iowa — but she’s taken a step back, efficiency-wise. MiLaysia Fulwiley has talent for days, but comes off the bench, and was ineffective in the Elite Eight, playing just 11 minutes.

All of which is to say, should South Carolina win, it serves as usefully irrefutable proof to the tired trope that Dawn Staley only wins because of her players. It’s a similar charge that’s been leveled at Geno Auriemma for years.

Do you need a talented roster to win a national title? You bet. Will this be Staley’s most talented roster, should she win this year? No way. This will be a Dawn Staley title.

Similarly, and we discussed this back in December, this UConn team actually will be disappointed in the Huskies don’t win the national title. They’ve reached the Final Four for the 24th time — I can’t even say it without laughing, it’s such a ridiculous accomplishment when reaching one Final Four is so hard — with their holy trinity of Paige Bueckers, Azzi Fudd and Sarah Strong intact and healthy. Fudd needs to do more in the Final Four than she did in the Elite Eight win over USC — eight points, no field goals until the fourth quarter — but a win would serve as an answer to all of those who declared UConn’s dynasty over when, one time, they didn’t reach the Final Four.

For Cori Close, this feels like vindication. I talked about it on Bracket Breakdown this weekend — Cori has treated her team like family, and many people have tried to argue that’s why UCLA hasn’t reached a Final Four, as if emotionally available coaches are incapable of the ultimate success. It’s always struck me as foolish, and now we see that firsthand.

I’m also so delighted for Lauren Betts, who has been public about her mental health struggles, with that seeming to free her up. She’s also a test case. This is the best college big since Brittney Griner. Can you win a national title built around a big? I can’t wait to see.

Notably, Close’s resume is really similar, both in terms of the postseason and number of pros developed, to Vic Schaefer’s predecessor, Karen Aston, which is why I thought Texas acted rashly in firing Aston, too. (Take a look at UTSA’s rise for further proof of how well Karen coaches.) But it has led to a Texas program, run by Schaefer, that is every bit as impressive as his Mississippi State teams were.

This is a chance for Madison Booker to show people she belongs in the conversation with Lauren Betts and Paige Bueckers. And it’s a chance for Vic Schaefer to get that one last win, previously denied him by South Carolina, then Arike Ogunbowale‘s heroics, with his two best Mississippi State teams.

Incidentally, we’ll be there en masse over at The Next and Locked On Women’s Basketball, with a reporter on each of the four teams, photographer Hannah Kevorkian and Gigi Speer on social. I’ll have my thoughts here, too, once we’ve all finished covering the festivities.

I spend my life trying to downplay expectations, to avoid disappointment. But I think this has a chance to be the highest-level women’s Final Four ever, which is a big statement in the very city where back in 2019, Arike Ogunbowale treated us to a pair of buzzer-beaters in 48 hours. (I will never get over that.)

But the sport has never been healthier. The storylines are all waiting to play out, the memories and moments to be remembered forever.

Let’s get to Tampa, shall we?

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This week in women’s basketball

Detroit Shock beat reporter Michael Rosenberg goes long on MiLaysia Fulwiley.

Tara VanDerveer joins No Offseason.

Rob Knox has been killing it for The Next on HBCUs all season.

Wilton Jackson takes you inside how Texas advanced to Tampa.

You will be missed, Doug Bruno.

Oral history of the 1995 Huskies? Yes please!

Really liked this from Cassandra Negley on Kim Caldwell.

I’ve had the privilege of working with Jordan Robinson over the past three weeks on Bracket Breakdown. I will miss her, but delightfully, with her podcast “The Women’s Hoops Show”, we all get the full Jordan experience regularly.

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Five at The IX: Bracket Breakdown

(What I’ve been up to the last few weeks)

Mondays: Soccer

By: Annie Peterson, @AnnieMPeterson, AP Women’s Soccer

Tuesdays: Tennis

By: Joey Dillon, @JoeyDillon, Freelance Tennis Writer

Wednesdays: Basketball

By: Howard Megdal, @HowardMegdal, The Next

Thursdays: Golf

By: Marin Dremock, @MDremock, The IX

Fridays: Hockey

By: @TheIceGarden, The Ice Garden

Saturdays: Gymnastics

By: Lela Moore, @runlelarun, Freelance Writer