What I’m watching for over the WNBA’s last two weeks — Niele Ivey talks Notre Dame

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I think the most interesting question as it relates to the standings is who the Indiana Fever will play. Indiana is currently in sixth place, a level that few would have predicted back when Caitlin Clark‘s crew stood at 2-9 after 11 games. (We knew it here, though!)

Realistically, the overall season stats are less indicative of Indiana’s true level than a segment of recent play, for the reasons cited in that link as well as basic common sense. Normally, slicing and dicing sample sizes is a fool’s errand, but there are exceptions, such as when a generational talent exhibits huge growth, or we see a team coalescing around that talent. The results include a career season for Kelsey Mitchell, finding the success I always thought she’d reach with the right team around her, and Lexie Hull resuming the long-range shooting that her Stanford tenure suggested would emerge in a matter of time. (It’s also a useful reminder: free throw percentage is a MUCH better predictor of future success from deep than 3-point percentage!)

Indiana is 15-7 since its 2-9 start. But to really get a sense of how good they’ve been lately, look at the last 10 games, a quarter of the season, and the current hierarchy in the league becomes clear. New York, Minnesota and Indiana are all 8-2. No one else is better than 6-4. By net rating, too, the three teams atop the league are New York, Minnesota and Indiana, then a big drop to Connecticut. I think you can make a reasonable case that the Sun, on the basis of total 2024 resume, can return to the top echelon of these three. But those are your four best teams in the WNBA.

Which is fascinating, right? Because New York has all but locked down that top seed, Minnesota and Connecticut are jockeying for two/three and in all likelihood, one of the Lynx or Sun will get, in the first round … Indiana! That’s a true toss-up series, and while no result would surprise me and I may just be a victim of recency bias here, I’d expect Minnesota to beat Indiana and Indiana to beat Connecticut at this point in a short series. Regardless, playing Indiana in the first round is a huge hurdle to clear for a team with a top-three season in the standings. That win on Tuesday by Seattle in Mohegan — which put the Storm three games clear of the Fever for that fifth seed — likely came with a sigh of relief in Las Vegas. The Storm are no pushover. But the Fever are a better team right now.

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Meanwhile in New York, the difference between facing a skidding Chicago Sky team New York has handled well all season in a No. 1 vs. No. 8 series, and an Atlanta Dream team that is good health away from sitting in the middle of the playoff pack as they did last year, is pretty significant. It’s pretty cool that we’ll get to see just how significant the final two games of Atlanta’s regular-season schedule, against Chicago on Sept. 17 in what could amount to a play-in game, followed by a trip to New York on Sept. 19. If the Dream play well enough to clinch a playoff spot, they can save themselves a trip back home to Atlanta, and just stick around in New York to prepare for the first round.

Most exciting of all, of course, is seeing who will have the greatest statistical odds of selecting Paige Bueckers next April, the drama that lottery-heads are truly losing their minds over. The Wings, to their discredit, keep on playing hard and finding ways to win. Note that their net rating over the past 10 games is closer to the middle group of Atlanta-Seattle-Las Vegas-Connecticut than the bottom group of Washington-Chicago-Los Angeles, all without a true point guard on the roster. The Wings are closer than people think, and Bueckers is a particularly good fit for that roster. And don’t forget — the Wings can swap picks with the Sky, so even if Dallas loses the lottery to Chicago, thanks to that Marina Mabrey trade, they still win it.

Los Angeles, too, has a number of obvious pieces that fit, while it reflects on the player buy-in that Azurá Stevens, Dearica Hamby and Lexie Brown all signed extensions this season. Bueckers in that group, with returning Cameron Brink, will turn L.A. into a contender quickly. And the Mystics remain a prisoner of their own competence, winners of four of five thanks to the work of Eric Thibault.

I kid, but truly, no one tanks in this league, though plenty of front offices are perfectly satisfied when their best efforts in non-contending years lead to draft picks that change the direction of a franchise. Gone are the days when potential lottery picks get dealt at the trade deadline or, for some reason, seemingly annually to Cheryl Reeve in one heist or another. And with the players at the top of this year’s draft, it has the potential to shape the remainder of the 2020s based on who picks when.

Let me tell you what I don’t expect to change much over the final two weeks of the season: who my pick is for Rookie of the Year. Angel Reese is an incredible talent, who has proven she’ll make plenty of all-star appearances for years to come. But I’ll be selecting, barring some seismic change or the earth crashing into the sun, for the rookie with the true shooting percentage north of 59%, second in the league in assist percentage among all players, trailing only Alyssa Thomas, while shouldering a huge portion of the load in lifting the Fever to a playoff berth and, as we discussed up top, not just a playoff berth, but a significant portion of the season as a WNBA elite team.

Angel Reese is the best rebounder in the game — you can ignore the nonsense idea that this is only due to grabbing her own misses, seeing as she’s second in the league in defensive rebounding percentage as well. And I think this is just the beginning for her: she knows what separates A’ja Wilson from Reese’s current skill set and has made it a spoken goal to reach that level.

But Caitlin Clark, who in addition to the massive passing and shooting edge is even with Reese in steal percentage and actually ahead of her in block percentage, is the Rookie of the Year. We’re having a different conversation if any of those numbers were reversed, or if the shooting efficiency were closer, or if Chicago’s record stood at 21-11, not 11-21. But they’re not. And so we aren’t.

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Stathead Stat of the Week

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This week in women’s basketball

Maitreyi captures the feels of the WNBA ticket price increases perfectly here.

Lots of good insight here from Alexa Phillipou and Michael Voepel.

Love this deep dive from Rob Knox on the practical effects of the WNBA’s charter policy.

Can the Aces figure it out? They’re trying everything.

I would NOT want to face this version of Skylar Diggins-Smith in an elimination game.

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Here at The IX, we want to wish every happiness to the great LaChina Robinson.

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Five at The IX: Niele Ivey, Notre Dame

Locked On Women’s Basketball: Niele Ivey keeps building in South Bend

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