Welcome back to WNBA Notes, your journey into trends and analysis around the WNBA. In this edition, Iโm breaking down the overnight Kelsey Plum trade from all angles I can think of, and weโre looking at our draft board from 2023 for successes, failures and lessons learned. For reference, since this notebook comes out over the weekend, I define โthis weekโ as the prior Sunday through last night.
Tankathon check-in
To be clear, no one in the WNBA is currently tanking on purpose (at least, the players arenโt). That being said, letโs see where our teams are right now in the lottery standings and where they project to end up (chart vaguely organized by rightmost column). I thought a team led by Alyssa Thomas would probably not end up in the lottery, but I get a lot of things wrong; hey, they have Kelsey Plum now.
| Team: | Games back in lottery: | Games back of No. 8 seed: | Strength of schedule remaining (out of 15)1: | Likely finish: |
| Connecticut | โโโ | 9.5 | 3rd-strongest (13th-easiest) | No. 1 lottery odds |
| Chicago2 | 3 | 5.5 | 5 | Top-half lottery odds |
| Toronto | 3 | 6 | 1 | Top-half lottery odds |
| Portland | 3.5 | 5.5 | 6 | Top-half lottery odds |
| Seattle | 10 | 11.5 | 7 | Bottom-half lottery odds |
| Los Angeles | 14 | 5.5 | 4 | Bottom-half lottery odds |
| Phoenix | 19.5 | 6 | 13 | Low playoff seed or worst lottery odds |
| Washington | 14.5 | โโโ | 9 | Low playoff seed |
2. Washington owns the rights to the better of its own and Chicagoโs pick
Los Angeles Sparks
In case this is the first thing you read today, Kelsey Plum is going to the Phoenix Mercury for Monique Akoa Makani, Phoenixโs 2027 first-round and 2028 second-rounder, per Shams Charania.
Good piece of business for the Sparks, who get what could be a small lottery ticket (that at worst would likely be an Ashlyn Watkins, SโMya Nichols or Tessa Johnson) and a two-way guard whoโs cost-controlled for two more years. Good get for an expiring deal, even if itโs a star.
That being said, in a vacuum, Los Angeles has effectively traded Dominique Malonga for Monique Akoa Makani and what is somewhat likely to be the lowest lottery pick in the upcoming draft. Thatโs not as bad as it couldโve been, but itโs not good.
The big question left is what the alternative offers were. Purely in terms of value, for Golden State to match or exceed it would look something like Janelle Salaรผn, Justฤ Jocytฤ, and a first-round pick, but that doesnโt come close to making salaries match. Dallas wouldโve required multiple picks and Aziaha James, and New York wouldโve needed multiple firsts and Satou Sabally. I suppose Atlanta couldโve really rocked the boat to make it work.
“Becoming Caitlin Clark” is out now!
Howard Megdal’s newest book is here! “Becoming Caitlin Clark: The Unknown Origin Story of a Modern Basketball Superstar” captures both the historic nature of Clark’s rise and the critical context over the previous century that helped make it possible, including interviews with Clark, Lisa Bluder (who also wrote the foreword), C. Vivian Stringer, Jan Jensen, Molly Kazmer and many others.
Phoenix Mercury
This smells like either a โwe think we can convince her to re-signโ price or a โmanagement said we have to win this yearโ price, because players like Akoa Makani with two more cheap years donโt exactly grow on trees.
That being said, the trio of Kelsey Plum, Alyssa Thomas, and Kahleah Copper, now that the latter has broken out of her slump โ sheโs averaged 23.9 points on 63.4% true-shooting over her last 15 games โ is as good as anyoneโs top three in the league this year. Minnesota (with Olivia Miles, Napheesa Collier, and whichever of Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride is better on a given night) might be the only one in the same ballpark.
A six-game deficit with 15 games to go is a very tough hill to climb, but this is a roster well-suited to making it happen if the defensive aggression can be kept up even without Akoa Makani. I donโt know if thatโs possible, and this suddenly becomes by far the most interesting on-court dynamic to watch in the WNBA right now.
And make no mistake: Plum is the best shot-creator in the league over the past 5.5 years. She is both an offensive engine that only a couple players on their best days can match and one that fits right into the toggling and advantage-creation system Nate Tibbetts sets up in the halfcourt.
Thereโs some fun ifs here, too. If Kelsey Plum re-signs in Phoenix, thatโs a deal you make ten times out of ten. If the Mercury sneak into the playoffs as the No. 8 seed, weโll end up with the best first-round matchup in league history. If they sneak in as the No. 7 seed, they could completely upend the bracket. If they donโt, well, weโre all still winners for front offices finally trying big midseason swings.
“Becoming Caitlin Clark” is out now!
Howard Megdal’s newest book is here! “Becoming Caitlin Clark: The Unknown Origin Story of a Modern Basketball Superstar” captures both the historic nature of Clark’s rise and the critical context over the previous century that helped make it possible, including interviews with Clark, Lisa Bluder (who also wrote the foreword), C. Vivian Stringer, Jan Jensen, Molly Kazmer and many others.
Toronto Tempo
Given the tankathon chart, why are the Tempo trying to trade a first-round pick, per the Athletic’s Annie Costabile? They have the worst defense in league history and are not a quick fix away from legitimate contention.
Their 2027 first-round pick is more than likely to produce Madison Booker or Mikaylah Williams, and the top 2028 group of Sarah Strong, Jaloni Cambridge, Joyce Edwards โ and possibly JuJu Watkins and/or the aforementioned wing pair if they stay for a fifth year โ are going to have higher ceilings than whichever Connecticut big Toronto couldnโt get for a first-rounder (Iโm guessing Olivia Nelson-Ododa, given that Aneesah Morrow went for a second-round pick).
The real key is that Toronto simply isnโt one impact big away from contention. Maybe if Cameron Brink could be salvaged in its player development infrastructure (in a way that looks increasingly unlikely to happen in Los Angeles), but beyond that outcome, itโs an attempt to lock the franchise into low playoff seeds for the next couple of years.
Thereโs value in establishing a competitive baseline and letting the chips fall where they may, but the combo of Marina Mabrey, Brittney Sykes and a middle-tier impact big really limits how much usage there is left to go around.
But the Aneesah Morrow trade is a fun move if you think she can still figure out how to put her offensive skills all together!
‘Rare Gems’ is out now!
Howard Megdal, founder and editor of The IX Basketball and The IX Sports, wrote this deeply reported book. “Rare Gems” follows four connected generations of women’s basketball pioneers, from Elvera “Peps” Neuman to Cheryl Reeve and from Lindsay Whalen to Sylvia Fowles and Paige Bueckers.
If you enjoy Megdal’s coverage of women’s basketball every Wednesday at The IX Sports, you will love “Rare Gems: How Four Generations of Women Paved the Way for the WNBA.”
The 2023 WNBA Draft
Hunter Cruse joined the scouting team right after our preseason draft board dropped, and Lincoln Shafer was added in the late winter. Together, we produced The IXโs 2023 draft board, which holds up a bit better than my 2022 equivalent.
Following my review last year of what I learned from my hits and misses in the latter, I spoke with Hunter and Lincoln about what weโve taken away from our first work together. Given the dearth of quality pros from the 2023 class, the answer is not much.
Emily: First thought: we were right on Aliyah Boston, big clap on the back for us. Iโve said it before, though: I think we were directionally wrong.
Hunter: We were too high on the defense.
Emily: And I think you can see the outlines of the best offensive center in the league in our scout, but certainly I donโt think we said that was super likely. But here we are.
Were we too high on the defensive positioning and timing because of how South Carolinaโs defensive aggressiveness compares to Indianaโs poor backcourt defense?
Hunter: Her biggest issue defensively in the W has been foul trouble.
Emily: Honestly, I think itโs that sheโs not a real plus in rim protection, which I think partly comes from what we knew at the time was her lack of vertical athleticism.
Hunter: I think thereโs just a ceiling on how good a player with her athleticism can be defensively.
Emily: I think thatโs the big takeaway here. The other being that if you add the ability to bring the ball up 94 feet and hit multiple threes a game, then you jump a grade or two.
Hunter: Sheโs 31-for-68 from three this year and 24-for-36 as a pick-n-roll ball-handler the last two seasons.
Lincoln: To me, there were definitely signs that she could operate more as a ball-handler and spacer; the comfort with the ball in her hands has always been there. Plus she had a 1.7-to-1.4 assist-to-turnover ratio at South Carolina with that spacing.
Emily: We could see that with the processing at the time, yeah.
I think Jordan Horston right now is like a low-end 45 FV? She just is a WNBA player, and for a 50-grade whoโs had two major injuries in her first three years, thatโs a pretty good outcome.
Lincoln: Plus she had a half-season [after the shoulder surgery] of being awesome before the ACL tear.
Hunter: I think the entire thing is injuries; the jumper hasnโt improved one bit.
Emily: Yeah, youโd want her to have some more runway given sheโs had only like half a season post-shoulder surgery. But I think with the defense and cutting where it is, even without that, sheโs a serviceable third forward or backup four for a while.
Lincoln: Seattle defense is five points worse with her off the court this season.
What a great draft. Maddy Siegrist and Dorka Juhรกsz are the only players that advanced stats think are clear positives past Boston. Laeticia Amihere and Horston, slight positives.
Hunter: Amihere is making 44% at the rim in the halfcourt [per Synergy] and doesnโt shoot.
Emily: We had Juhรกsz as a non-prospect.
Lincoln: She wouldโve been a Priority 2 if we had that concept in 2023.
Emily: Right, like we said about Sydney Taylor for 2024 a week or two ago. Plus Iโm not sure thereโs much signal Juhรกszโs a legitimate rotation piece if sheโs not hitting as many threes as she is right now. The last time her minutes mattered, her team traded to replace them with Myisha Hines-Allen.
Hunter: All her 3-point production is two games [Juhรกsz twice hit four threes in a game this year]. Between those, in five games she was 1-for-10. Terrible free-throw shooter too.
Lincoln: She never made any threes with Schio โ like, 17-for-61 โ and had maybe a fake 3-point shooting year with Galatasaray this year. Forty-six-for-96 on free throws across all competition with Galatasaray this season.
Emily: And then with Siegrist, her defense has turned out about as well as weโd feared, and the toggling is very good, but the shooting didnโt scale up until this year, and itโs a small sample of those threes falling at a rate that an offense-only forward would need.
Hunter: Thirty-nine percent 3-point attempt rate for a bad athlete four is absurd[ly low].
Emily: Seasons of 18%-plus usage, โค10% assist rate, โค5% turnover rate (min. 350 min, per Stathead):
- 2, Siegrist
- 1, everyone else in league history (Elena Delle Donne in 2014)
Lincoln: She absolutely rules from 8-15 feet. She just doesnโt need space to create her shot.
Emily: I agree, but there she hasnโt been leaned on to create outside the dozen games to start 2024 before she got hurt.
Lincoln: The issue with Diamond Miller was upright posture and bad handle.
Emily: I feel similarly with contextualizing her being a bust as I do with Diamond DeShields, in the sense of sure, thereโs the health issues, but there were no real flashes of sustainably positive play before those.
Hunter: Canโt handle, process or shoot.
Emily: Which is basically what we said in the scout, and those are the real anchor skills. Same thing defensively: We said she had issues with basic point of attack coordination and couldnโt defend the post, and thereโs no room for someone who can do neither.
Lincoln: Part of this to me is that she was the primary rim protector and help defender for Brenda Freseโs island of misfit toys after all their bigs left.
Emily: If sheโd hit, the defensive play would need to be based on her help. And it just didnโt work there either. Any time we invoke Jazmon Gwathmey, itโs probably not good.
Lincoln: I did call in spring 2023 that Haley Jones would be a sick short roll four.
Emily: And we were at most a half-grade off on her? I’d bet sheโs in a rotation by the time Philly starts playing.
Just going down the list here, Grace Berger at 40 FV isn’t bad, but I’ve certainly learned to really fade any guard who checks off two of โold for the class,โ poor shooting and subpar athlete, let alone all three.
Lincoln: I was super high on her defense and didnโt really like her jumper, and it got worse when she showed up in the W and immediately hit the Jarrett Allen playoffs quote.
Emily: I think weโve come to appreciate since that a lot of factors go into translating midrange creation from college to the pros, and she didnโt tick off handle or athleticism there.
Taylor Soule did, in fact, turn out to be Isaac Okoro without a 3-pointer, and thatโs great for the Polish league.
Lincoln: And this [season in UpShot] is her first time playing basketball since the Achilles pop.
Hunter: I think we see Maรฏa Hirsch in the WNBA at some point โ sheโs 6โ4 & shot 40% 3-point percentage and 85% free-throw percentage in the French league.
Lincoln: And sheโs in significantly better playing shape than she was in 2022-23.
Emily: Taylor Mikesell was too limited, Lou Lopez Sรฉnรฉchal briefly hit threes from 2021-23, Elena Tsineke never got the processing where it needed to be, and Leigha Brown wouldโve been a Priority 2 if that was a thing.
Lincoln: Also, I think part of it with Brown was โthereโs no way thereโs only five good players in this draft we gotta put more people on the list.โ And then there were five good players in the draft.
Emily: And weโve gotten far better at identifying what fringe prospects are a 30 FV worth a shot and which are Priority 2s that need heavier development. A one-year efficiency wonder with processing issues like Tsineke wouldn’t be a 30 for us now anyway.
This class was very trying on our ability to make a list that even reached double digits.
