Australian Open qualifying dark horses — Team USA takes United Cup
By Joey Dillon
The IX: Tennis Tuesday with Joey Dillon, Jan. 7, 2025
Howdy, y’all, Happy Tennis Tuesday and Happy 2025! After a little bit of a break, we’re already in the second week of the 2025 WTA season! Even though it’s already started, I still like to provide you with my annual three dark horses in Grand Slam qualifying that could produce some main draw magic. Plus, there is a lot of things to catch up on in these last two weeks! Alycia Parks, the No. 1 seed even though she’s currently ranked No. 68, couldn’t produce the tennis that vaulted her to the Auckland semifinals last week and was bounced in the opening round. The time difference is a bit crazy, so these predictions might be null and void by the time we all wake up to see results. I apologize in advance!
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(6) Polina Kudermetova: The younger sister of tour vet Veronika, Polina Kudermetova is already making headlines in 2025. The 21-year-old qualified for the WTA 500 Brisbane International last week and stunned her way to the finals before losing to Aryna Sabalenka in three sets. Among her victims in Brisbane were Liudmila Samsonova and Daria Kasatkina and the result allowed the Russian to break into the Top 100. She actually currently sits at No. 57, which would guarantee a main draw berth, but the cutoff was six weeks prior to the start of the tournament.
Kudermetova has played some of her best tennis Down Under and in fact, the Australian Open is the only Grand Slam where she’s won a qualifying match — she qualified for the main draw in 2023 and reached the final round last year. The No. 6 seed in this year’s draw, she won her opening round and plays former Top 10 player Kristina Mladenovic. The only player I could see in her section possibly troubling Kudermetova is No. 28 seed Ena Shibihara, but the Russian is playing confidently. Expect her to qualify and have her first-round opponent shaking in her boots.
(9) Kimberly Birrell: Last year, Arina Rodionova was Australia’s No. 1 player and had a nice run at the Brisbane International, yet was declined a main draw wildcard into Melbourne. Unfortunately, this continued with the early wildcard announcement sharing the Kimberly Birrell, then-ranked No. 113, would have to qualify this year. In Brisbane, she had to escape fellow Aussie Priscilla Hon before grabbing a Top 10 win over Emma Navarro. She continued her epic play to defeat Anastasia Potapova to reach her first WTA 500 quarterfinal before bowing out to Anhelina Kalinina. The result would launch Birrell into the Top 100 for the first time following injury struggles.
She showed glimpses of promise late last year en route to her first WTA final in Osaka and also qualifying for both the U.S. Open and the China Open leading up to that. What’s a bit interesting here is that she now plays Hon for a spot in the final round of qualifying and based on their Brisbane match, as well as their 5-3 head-to-head in Hon’s favor, an epic could unfold. If you can, that would be a really fun one to watch because I think that winner qualifies and could sneak a win in a round or two.
(11) Robin Montgomery: Robin Montgomery has been an American talent on the radar for a lot of tennis fans, but she hasn’t produced a super deep run or had the consistency to become a Top 100 stalwart. I think that’s a thought of the past because the 20-year-old reached her first WTA semifinal last week in Auckland and sits at a career-high of No. 105. I caught her quarterfinal straight-sets victory over Bernarda Pera and she packs a massive lefty serve but she’s also quite the craftswoman with a cheeky drop shot. She initially put the tennis world on notice when she swept the junior singles and doubles titles at the 2021 U.S. Open but she’s been acclimating at the WTA level this past year.
She didn’t play on the ITF World Tour too much in 2024 — a season that saw her qualify and win a round at Wimbledon and also a quarterfinal at the WTA 500 in her hometown of Washington D.C. She also won two rounds as a wildcard in Madrid, knocking out Katie Boulter before narrowly losing to Aryna Sabalenka. For Montgomery, it’s more of a “when, not if” situation. She has all of the tools to be a longtime member in the Top 50 — at worst.
A few other names you might want to keep an eye out on in Melbourne and the rest of 2025? Destanee Aivia, reigning junior champion Renata Jamrichova, Leolia Jeanjean, Varvara Lepchenko, Gao Xinyu and Sijia Wei.
Now, on to links!
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This Week in Women’s Tennis
The United States had the deepest roster in the entire United Cup and were able to claim the title with a 2-0 win over Poland. Taylor Fritz and Coco Gauff played all of the singles rubbers and joined together for a mixed doubles tie as well.
Aryna Sabalenka continued her impressive resume on Australian soil, improving to 26-1 since the start of the 2023 season with a win over Polina Kudermetova at the Brisbane International. Mirra Andreeva and Diana Shnaider won the doubles title over Anna Kalinskaya and Priscilla Hon.
At the ASB Classic in Auckland, Clara Tauson won her third career title with a win over Naomi Osaka. Osaka actually won the first set, 6-4, but had to retire due to injury. In doubles, Jiang Xinyu and Wu Fang-Hsien knocked out Sabrina Santamaria and Aleksandra Krunic in straight sets to win.
Aoi Ito won her first WTA 125 title at the Workday Canberra International over Sijia Wei. The doubles crown was captured by Aussies Jaimee Fourlis and Petra Hule, who upset No.3 seeds Darja Semenistaja and Nina Stojanovic.
Elena Rybakina shocked the world by announcing former coach Stefano Vukov would be re-joining her team but then there was an even bigger shock when it was announced Vukov has been provisionally suspended by the WTA for potential code of conduct violations. The report by the WTA’s third party investigation hasn’t been completed/revealed but this will definitely be a story to keep an eye out on.
Coco Gauff has been announced as an investor into the Unrivaled basketball league:
Although she’s 81, Billie Jean King isn’t slowing down and continues to be a face for women’s sports, while Chris Evert finds even more purpose entering her seventh decade.
Barbora Krejcikova was the biggest name to withdraw from the Australian Open, with Karolina Pliskova and Caroline Wozniacki also pulling out. My gut says we might be getting another retirement message from Woznaicki after the former World No. 1 hasn’t posted any on-court content and the big reason behind her comeback was fulfilled at the Paris Olympics.
Belinda Bencic is back on the WTA Tour and the 2020 Tokyo Olympic gold medalist thinks her best tennis is in front of her following maternity leave.
In big life news, Ash Barty announced she and husband Gary Kissick are expecting their second child together, Katie Boulter and Alex De Minaur got engaged over the holiday break and Julia Goerges wed Wesley Koolhof.
As someone who has tried to win games against pros, I support this endeavor:
Suzan Lamens is gearing up for her first Grand Slam main draw following a career-best season that saw the Dutch win her first WTA singles title late last year.
Sandra Zaniewska was the latest guest on Tennis Channel’s Inside-In podcast to discuss her journey into coaching and being a female coach in the sport.
While it was announced that Wimbledon would be undergoing massive grounds changes, locals are trying to block it.
Georgia headlines the top of the first college tennis ranking poll of the season:
Maya Joint, who was taking classes at Texas while playing on the pro circuit this fall, is turning pro, while former junior Wimbledon champion Liv Hovde is somehow able to join the roster at Duke two and a half years after signing with an agent.
Most of tennis’ top bodies unveiled a report about the online abuse players receive, but I know for a fact the numbers are even higher if they were able to track any player that has a match for bettors to wage.\
Congratulations to Challengers, which (rightfully, IMO) won Best Score at the Golden Globes.
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Tweet of the Week
It’s one thing to make the Wimbledon final and win an Olympic medal. But the fact Gaby Dabrowski did that after being diagnosed with breast cancer? UNREAL! Women are simply unreal.
Five at The IX: Brisbane and United Cup
Q. What’s been the secret to your success at the start of seasons over the years? This is your fourth or fifth title in a season-opening event.
ARYNA SABALENKA: I don’t know what’s my secret. I guess I’m working really hard. Everything is surrounded by tennis. Tennis is my main priority. I have the great people around me. I’m able to have fun off court and be focused on the court.
I think it’s a balance about on and off the court life, be able to work really hard, be focused on your goals, but at the same time having some fun just so you’re not going to drive yourself crazy.
I think that’s pretty much it.
Q. Can you talk to us about your mindset now going into the Australian Open. Obviously it’s a tournament you had so much success at. Do you feel like you’re getting close to that invincible stage at the moment?
ARYNA SABALENKA: I mean, that’s sport. That’s why sport is so beautiful, because you cannot be sure about everything. Every time you’re out there, you have to compete, you have to fight, you have to show why you are, like, world No. 1 or why you’re in top 10. Doesn’t matter. You have to show your level and you have to fight for it.
I definitely feel confident in my game. I’m just excited. I love playing there. I love to fight for my dream. That’s the conditions where I feel really comfortable in. I’m just super exciting heading to the Australia Open.
Q. You’ve now won I think it’s seven or eight matches against top-100 opponents in a row. You’ve improved from 180 to just outside the top 100 now. You must be feeling very confident about continuing your progression in the rankings?
POLINA KUDERMETOVA: Yeah, you know, when I was coming to Australia and I say for my coach, Hopefully I will win the quallies, the first one (smiling).
Then I say when I was winning the quallies, I say like, Let’s try to win one game. I will be happy.
Then he all the time like tell me, Just play for your match, I mean, like what you were doing, your work on the practice and you will be win the match.
Q. Another one for Coco. I think you said before that you won the US Open when you weren’t playing your best tennis, and I just wanted to get your assessment, now you have had a couple of weeks of matches this year, where you feel your level is at.
COCO GAUFF: Yeah, I definitely think this is one of my best tennis performance, especially in today’s match, was a high-level match. I think both of us were playing well.
I think honestly when I had that confidence in that final, where I actually felt really bad in that final, it just gives me confidence because I know when I’m playing good, if I can win when I’m not playing well, that when I’m playing good I should win.
I think for me, I just let loose, let the pressure go, realize the worst thing that can happen is you lose a match and you go back to work and try to get better for next time.
Q. This is for Iga and Hubi. Obviously first event before you start playing your matches, there is always a little bit of curiosity as to kind of what this week is going to be like game-wise, questions about whether your preseason will translate, all that. I’m curious what is the biggest thing that you have learned about the state of your game coming out of this event going into Melbourne.
HUBERT HURKACZ: Well, it’s very curious, because I haven’t played for a while, so I didn’t know how it’s going to end up. Definitely just needed some time on the court to adapt certain things, as working with the new team, new racquet, as well. I’m really happy with that, things we are working towards. Still not everything is clicking yet, but I see some light at the end of the tunnel.
IGA SWIATEK: And I’m for sure happy, because, you know, I played some heavy hitters as well this week and also some girls that played tough. I was able to play against both really great tennis. For sure today I wasn’t able to give 100%. Coco also played amazing, you know, and she’s for sure improving. But overall I’m really happy with the week. I feel like things I worked on really improved.
But on the other hand, like, you know, this week, Australian Open is a different story, so still I’m gonna do everything step by step and continue the work that I have been doing.
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