Drama at the 2025 Australian Open — Quotes from Melbourne
By Joey Dillon
The IX: Tennis Tuesday with Joey Dillon, Jan. 21, 2025
Howdy, y’all and Happy Tennis Tuesday! While I bask in the glory of THE Ohio State University claiming the College Football Playoff, we’re also diving right into the second week of the Australian Open. The quarterfinals are set and on paper, it’s quite a stacked lineup:
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(1) Aryna Sabalenka vs. (27) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (Pavlyuchenkova leads 2-1)
(3) Coco Gauff vs. (11) Paula Badosa (head-to-head tied 3-3)
(19) Madison Keys vs. (28) Elina Svitolina (Keys leads 3-2)
(2) Iga Swiatek vs. (8) Emma Navarro (Swiatek leads 1-0)
Not only are there no unseeded players remaining, but each player left has made at least two previous Grand Slam quarterfinals. I feel we’ve almost been conditioned to expect mass upsets and a surprise semifinalist to emerge. In fact, the only real true surprise was the fourth round run of lucky loser Eva Lys.
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At the time of publishing, we already have one semifinalist in Paula Badosa. The Spaniard reached her first Grand Slam semifinal with a 7-5, 6-4, upset over Coco Gauff. It was Gauff’s first loss of the year and the first Slam Top 10 victory for Badosa. A year ago, the No. 11 seed was facing the possibility of retirement due to a back injury but she’s been finding the form that helped her reach the No. 2 ranking.
The match between Aryna Sabalenka and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova can be a fun one as Pavlyuchenkova leads their head-to-head, though they haven’t met since 2021. The longevity of Pavlyuchenkova’s career astounds me, to be honest and she needs to be commended more. The Russian captured the 2006 and 2007 junior titles and while she has yet to crack the Top 10, she’s reached her ninth career Grand Slam quarterfinal (and fourth in Melbourne). While Pavlyuchenkova has dropped two sets en route, Sabalenka hasn’t lost any and continues her path for a three-peat Down Under. She’s been tested in some sets, but the confidence she brings on a hardcourt surpasses any subpar performance or error.
Prediction: Sabalenka in 2
The bottom half starts with my favorite matchup of the four in Madison Keys facing off against Elina Svitolina. Keys has already kicked her season off with a title in Adelaide and her return game against Elena Rybakina was stunning in the fourth round. In the off-season, she changed her serve and equipment and the risk has been paying off. This round marks Keys’ eleventh Grand Slam quarterfinal and like Pavlyuchenkova, her fourth in Melbourne. She thrives in Australia and hopes to continue her momentum against Svitolina, perhaps the biggest surprise quarterfinalist given the foot surgery that ended her 2024 campaign early. The lone set the Ukrainian has dropped was against No. 4 Jasmine Paolini and she backed it up with a bagel final set. She was incredibly strong and more aggressive than usual against Veronika Kudermetova though was that to maintain her flawless record against Russians since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war or is it a sign of what’s to come. While Svitolina can retrieve the blows Keys will send through the court, it’s her serve that will likely be the downfall. Keys’ return will eat up the Svitolina second serve with ease but if Svitolina can find a way to keep the first serve up, she has a chance. This could be the one to go three, but my gut is saying no with a close (likely first) set.
Prediction: Keys in 2
Lastly, Iga Swiatek faces off against Emma Navarro in the most drastically different paths to the quarterfinals. Swiatek has bageled in her previous three matches and has dropped eleven games total in her four matches. Navarro on the other hand? She’s been forced to take the very scenic route. She’s been taken to three sets in all of her matches, including two 7-5 final sets against Peyton Stearns and Daria Kasatkina, while her other two wins were 6-4 in the third. The American has won the most three-set matches since the start of the 2024 season, but I think the amount of tennis she’s had to play will simply catch up to her. Sure, Swiatek has had an easy draw bar her first round, but when you get to the beginning of the second week, it’s about fitness — physically and mentally. Navarro will need to have a strong start to have a chance. If Swiatek comes firing out of the gate, it could be another quick one.
Prediction: Swiatek in 2
Like I mentioned last week, you must take these Australian Open predictions with a grain of salt. While I only picked half of the correct quarterfinalists, I could still end up with three semifinalists after Gauff’s unfortunate loss earlier. There’s been plenty of talk around Swiatek’s domination but I still have my money on Sabalenka coming through to make it three in a row.
The WTA is in their consistency era and I think this year’s Australian Open Elite Eight will be doing a lot of the talking the rest of the season. Now, on to links!
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This week in women’s tennis
Iga Swiatek and the duo of Sara Errani and Jasmine Paolini were named the 2024 World Champions from the International Tennis Federation.
The World Anti-Doping Agency announced that they will not be appealing the one-month suspension Iga Swiatek served in the off-season due to a contaminated melatonin supplement.
The Australian Open doesn’t own their broadcasting rights, so they’ve created Wii-like characters to live stream and it’s an absolute highlight.
WTA Insider broke down the top stories, matches and more from the first week in Melbourne.
Destanee Aivia was profiled by Vogue for recycling famous outfits through her inspiring run to the second round as a qualifier. She also spoke on her YouTube channel, revealing an Australian brand declined sponsoring her before the tournament:
Eva Lys, who lost to Aivia in the final round of qualifying, found herself in the main draw ten minutes before her opening match. She then became the first lucky loser in the Open Era to reach the second week.
Are teen prodigies a thing of the past? With the rising average age of the Top 100, Mirra Andreeva continues to be the odd woman out.
Erin Routliffe is having quite the week:
Twenty-two stringers from thirteen countries make up the Yonex stringing room at this year’s Australian Open, doing up to 500 racquets per day.
Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is wearing her own designs on the court after a partnership with Lacoste was not renewed.
LSU picked up a massive recruit in Kayla Cross, ranked in the Top 300:
Dayana Yastremska took to Instagram to try and find a last-minute hitting partner but unfortunately I was in America.
Naomi Osaka revealed she wasn’t sure if she and Patrick Mouratoglou would click right away when they joined forces during the offseason.
Staying home to tend to her family during the Southern California wildfires, Pam Shriver’s car was stolen that held nearly a dozen of her Grand Slam trophies.
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Tweet of the week
Inspired by Charli XCX, Danielle Collins embracing the heckling Australian Open crowd will probably be my highlight for the entire 2025 season
Five at The IX: Australian Open Week 1
Question: Does it faze you at all being maybe even being the pantomime villain going forward? Seems like it doesn’t bother you. Does it spur you on?
Danielle Collins: Yeah, I mean, all I have to say is good luck pissing somebody off or getting under the skin of somebody that doesn’t — can I say it?
Moderator: Don’t say it.
Collins: Seriously, good luck trying to get under the skin of somebody that really doesn’t care.
“One of the greatest things about being a professional athlete is the people that don’t like you and the people that hate you, they actually pay your bills. It’s kind of a cool concept. Obviously my professional career is not going to last forever. So I just remind myself every day when I have that kind of stuff, they’re paying my bills. Every person that’s bought a ticket to come out here and heckle me or do what they do, it’s all going towards the Danielle Collins Fund.”
– Danielle Collins after beating Destanee Aiava, 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-2 in Round 2
“I wouldn’t say I’m ruthless. I just try to have the same kind of attitude and same kind of focus no matter what the score is. But it’s not like I want to, you know, show something. I’m just playing my game. If it’s working, why stop?”
– Iga Swiatek, after defeating Emma Raducanu 6-1, 6-0 in Round 3
“I fell a little short in the US Open, but my outfit was spectacular.”
– Naomi Osaka on her loss to Karolina Muchova at the US Open last year.
“Before I would always have more expectations if I would have bigger results, but it’s not the case here. I mean, I don’t even have to remind myself. I think my body just tells me. If I see Bella, I just see her being only eight-and-a-half months now. Really happy with how the comeback is going.”
– Belinda Bencic, after advancing to the Round of 16 in her first Grand Slam since returning from maternity leave.
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