Just exactly who is the NCAA Tournament favorite? — Liatu King talks Notre Dame

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I don’t think I’m telling you any secrets when I tell you I watch a massive amount of college basketball. This season has been no different. And while the sport has the capacity to surprise me, I’m usually relatively set by March when it comes to some basic assumptions about how I understand the pecking order to be for the nation’s top teams, particularly when it comes to narrowing down who is likeliest to cut down the nets in April.

But I am here to tell you, friends: I am truly at a loss. The best teams in America have been a circular firing squad this season, which is incredible for the sport — kudos to all of those programs who play one another in the nonconference, and shame on those who still insist on facing cupcakes until New Year’s. But it has left me more confused than ever.

At different times, I have thought the following teams are the best in the country this season: USC, UCLA, Connecticut, South Carolina, Texas and Notre Dame. I think the following teams can beat anyone on any given day: Tennessee, Florida State, NC State and if healthy, LSU. (LSU is not healthy right now, let’s leave them out of the discussion. That’s no disrespect to Flau’jae Johnson, but the exact opposite.)

USC, clearly, got the better of UCLA, twice in 16 days. Trojans are the best in the country, right? Not when they played Notre Dame, Hannah Hidalgo outperformed everyone on the floor, JuJu Watkins included, and it all took place before Maddy Westbeld returned from injury.

Okay fine, Notre Dame is the best in the country! After all, they beat USC. And Texas! But… they got outscored by TCU and Utah early, lost to an NC State team that, say it with me, can beat anyone on any given day (that four-guard monster is made to run NCAA teams out of the gym in March), and lost to Florida State as well. No, you can’t argue NC State or Florida State as favorites to win it all, but I’ll be zero percent surprised to see them show up in Tampa at the Final Four.

And Notre Dame beat UConn, too, but critically, that came against an Azzi Fudd-less Huskies team. Still, Tennessee managed to beat UConn at full strength — don’t be shocked to see Kim Caldwell’s crew in Tampa, either — and the Huskies also lost to USC (without Fudd playing much, it must be said). I’ll stick with what I wrote back in December, which is that with the trio of Fudd, Paige Bueckers and Sarah Strong, UConn is going to be tough to beat. But they do not feel inevitable in the way so many of the Huskies’ title-winning teams did. Still: eleven titles is a lot! And I looked it up — same coach who won them is still coaching them. Top assistant, too!

But if not UConn, it’s Texas, right? Except the Longhorns lost to Notre Dame. And South Carolina! Vic Schaefer’s team is as dangerous as anyone on both ends of the court. Madison Booker would be a WNBA All Star if she left school today. And Rori Harmon is as smart as she is inspirational, returning from injury. The team is deep and they all play Vic Schaefer’s style. Vic’s done everything except win that final game, and if you don’t think that is part of what drives him, well, you’ve never met the man. So Texas. Favorites. Yes?

Well: South Carolina beat them, a few weeks ago, by 17! Yes, the Longhorns proceeded to win the rematch, 66-62. But somehow, the idea that the defending champions, simply by virtue of sliding all the way down to a… 27-3 record — with all three losses coming to teams with a solid chance at earning number one seeds — could go out and win another national title isn’t registering for many. Maybe it’s considered boring to think the team everyone thought had the most talent at the start of the year, coached by Dawn Staley of all people, could go out and win another title. I truly don’t know. But I’ve spent plenty of this season assuming that when everything settles into place, it’s awfully hard to bet against the Gamecocks…

…who were absolutely blown out by UCLA. Do we really think Lauren Betts can’t take over the 2024 NCAA Tournament the way A’ja Wilson did in 2017? Same question, but: Madison Booker? JuJu Watkins? Paige Bueckers? Hannah Hidalgo? Ta’Niya Latson? Aziaha James? Talaysia Cooper? Dear lord, who wants to face Tennessee, second in the nation in pace and three-pointers attempted, tenth in forced turnovers?!? Imagine getting that in a regional final with 36 hours to prep!

And don’t even get me started on Maryland, Baylor, Ohio State, Richmond or #ThreeBidIvy. Fairfield, too! Man, I miss the regular season already. (And we don’t even have time for Bowdoin and NYU in DIII!)

The point is, the way the sport’s growth was supposed to apply upward pressure on the very top of the sport has, indisputably, happened. It’s going to make for a tournament unlike any I think we’ve seen before. I think you can place any of the six teams I mentioned at the start here — USC, UCLA, Connecticut, South Carolina, Texas and Notre Dame — into virtually every season I’ve ever covered, and any one of them would reach the Final Four, and be a legitimate contender to win it all.

But I consulted with higher-ups at the NCAA, and it turns out that the Final Four can accommodate a maximum of four teams. Somehow, at least two of the above — and truly, as many as four of them — might not even make it to Tampa. That LSU Tigers team from 2023-24, forced to face Caitlin Clark‘s Iowa in the Elite Eight, wasn’t an outlier. It was a harbinger of the difficulty to come of stringing those six wins together to take home a national title.

So at a moment when many of us could use something to distract us, something to provide momentary relief from the onslaught of terrible news, here comes women’s basketball, the best it’s ever been, as a temporary salve for our psyches. It will be tempting to believe that the reason you are having so much fun as you watch is because of how little fun you’re having when you aren’t watching.

But know this, too: the sport really is this good. At a moment when we can take less than ever for granted, leave it to women’s basketball to provide us with some true mystery about the future we can all savor.

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Five at The IX: Liatu King, Notre Dame

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