Is it Aryna Sabalenka’s Australian Open to lose? — Quotes from Adelaide International
By Joey Dillon
The IX: Tennis Tuesday with Joey Dillon, Jan. 14, 2025
Howdy, y’all and Happy Tennis Tuesday! We’re through the first three days and the opening round of the 2025 Australian Open and as of submission, there haven’t been too many upsets. No. 13 seed Anna Kalinskaya, a breakout quarterfinalist a year ago, withdrew before her match and the highest seed to lose so far has been No. 16 Jelena Ostapenko — the unfortunate opponent of Belinda Bencic coming back from maternity leave. Even though we’re through the first round, I wanted to share how I filled out my bracket, per all of the big tournaments. (Aryna Sabalenka figures prominently in it, of course.)
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I’ll share my predictions and explain the thought process. As I always say, please do not use these predictions for any betting purposes because the odds of my guesses fleshing out correctly are incredibly low.
Round of 16
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (14) Mirra Andreeva
(5) Zheng Qinwen def. (12) Diana Shnaider
(3) Coco Gauff def. (16) Jelena Ostapenko
(6) Jessica Pegula def. (11) Paula Badosa
(19) Madison Keys def. (7) Elena Rybakina
(4) Jasmine Paolini def. (22) Katie Boulter
(9) Daria Kasatkina def. (8) Emma Navarro
(2) Iga Swiatek def. (21) Victoria Azarenka
Quarterfinals
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (5) Zheng Qinwen
(3) Coco Gauff def. (6) Jessica Pegula
(19) Madison Keys def. (4) Jasmine Paolini
(2) Iga Swiatek def. (9) Daria Kasatkina
Semi-Finals
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (3) Coco Gauff
(2) Iga Swiatek def. (19) Madison Keys
Final
(1) Aryna Sabalenka def. (2) Iga Swiatek
Based on performances these last few days, I don’t think Sabalenka has played the best out of all of the players, but she’s undefeated this year and insanely good on Australian soil the last few years. I do expect the Top 5 players to hold up their end and make the quarterfinals with relative ease. It really is hard to bet against her and the level she’s producing the last 12 months. Coco Gauff is also undefeated and could be on a super fun collision course with Sabalenka and is the best example for someone to dethrone the Belarussian. In fact, both had to overcome former Grand Slam champions from America (Sabalenka over Sloane Stephens and Gauff over Sofia Kenin). Last year’s runner-up Zheng Qinwen struggled against qualifier Anca Todoni however, I’ll say this. I still don’t think anyone will be able to stop through Sabalenka en route to a three-peat, but I do think a few of my predictions won’t live up to my promise.
First, Emma Navarro had a three-and-a-half hour epic over fellow NCAA singles champion Peyton Stearns to open her tournament and she will need to play a lot better if she is going to attempt to live up to her seeding. No. 32 Maria Sakkari has historically underperformed at Grand Slams and maybe with no eyeballs or expectations on her, she could be the one to sneak a massive run. I also noticed a video of No. 4 Jasmine Paolini practicing and she looked to have been hampered with an injury, even though she had a 2-1 record at the United Cup. Of the players in her section, I could see No. 28 Elina Svitolina or even more so No. 22 Katie Boulter could be the one to take advantage. The Brit is seeking her first second week at a major and she’s one of my darkhorses to produce a really productive 2025.
Elena Rybakina has been the draw’s biggest question mark, in my opinion. The drama surrounding the provisional suspension to former-but-maybe-part-coach Stefano Vukov could lead many players to implode on court. However, the 2023 runner-up looked mighty impressive in her 6-1, 6-1, rout over wild card and Grand Slam debutant Emerson Jones. She’s one of few that could walk on court and literally dust off any player at the drop of a hat and should my predictions hold, her fourth round against Madison Keys could be the match of the tournament. That winner, to me, should all but write their names in the semifinals. Iga Swiatek, I haven’t even mentioned, which is crazy and she’s been afforded a relatively easy draw compared to some of her counterparts. I do expect her to reach her first Australian Open final, but could she take it all? The gut just says not this year.
Now, on to links!
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This Week in Women’s Tennis
Armed with a new serve, Madison Keys continues to thrive the week before a Grand Slam. The American won her ninth career title and fourth preceding a Slam at the Adelaide International with a win over Jessica Pegula. In doubles Guo Hanyu and Alexandra Panova defeated Beatriz Haddad Maia and Laura Siegemund to win their first title as a duo.
Another player who is starting to enjoy the week before a Slam is American McCartney Kessler. The former Florida Gator won her second WTA title at the Hobart International with a three-set win over Elise Mertens. Her first crown came right before the U.S. Open in Cleveland and she enters the Top 50 as a result. Jiang Xinyu and Wu Fang-Hsien won a WTA 250 title for the second consecutive week with a win over Monica Niculescu and Fanny Stollar.
Keys also shared she’s donating $20,000 to the Los Angeles Fire Department as they continue to battle the spreading wildfires in the area:
Tennis balls continue to be a hot topic, but are they worse than ever before?
Billie Jean King alluded to this when I got to sit on her roundtable at the Billie Jean King Cup Finals, but she’s stressed that the players need to learn more about the business and think with that perspective instead of just playing on-court.
Danielle Collins wasn’t expecting to be playing this year until her fertility issues remained unsolved, but she’s committing to playing on tour until she has a definitive answer.
When I say I’m still not ready for Gen Z players like Destanee Aiava (this year’s AO fashion queen) on social media, I really mean it:
Mirra Andreeva aims to reach new heights with the tennis world expecting a lot from her with Conchita Martinez in her coaches box.
Remember when I said I predict Caroline Wozniacki is done playing? Well, she’s Down Under to commentate and brought in the women’s champion trophy on opening night while staying mum on her withdrawal and plans:
Jodie Burrage won her opening match in Melbourne as she continues her comeback from injury, one that had the Brit contemplating retirement altogether.
Carla Suarez Navarro has been appointed the new captain for Spain’s Billie Jean King Cup team.
Roland Garros will be adopting a draw system for fans to purchase tickets for the tour’s second Grand Slam of the year.
For the third consecutive season, the Nordea Open in Bastad, Sweden, has been named the Best WTA 125 event of the year.
The Midwest will be getting more professional women’s tennis with a new ITF World Tour event scheduled to debut in Decatur, Illinois.
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Tweet(s) of the Week
May the (sleep) odds be ever in your favor!
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Five at The IX: Adelaide International
Q. It’s pretty hard to say now, obviously, but last time you won here you made the semis in the Aussie Open, are you feeling confident you can go on another pretty big run?
MADISON KEYS: I think that I haven’t quite gotten my brain on to Melbourne yet (laughing), I’m still pretty firmly in Adelaide right now. I mean, I think when I’m playing good tennis a lot of really good things can happen, and it’s just putting myself out there and continuing to give myself the opportunity to play good tennis, and a lot of times good things follow. Luckily, Ash Barty is not here to embarrass me anymore, so we have that going for me (laughing).
Q. I know you probably get asked this every time you come here, about your record in Australia and success here and whatnot, but do you actually do anything different, is the preparation for this swing different in any way to any other travel that you do, or preparation for other tournaments that you do?
MADISON KEYS: Well, I think it’s unique because we actually are coming with time off, so we’re always a little bit fresh. I always really enjoy it here. Typically, the courts play pretty fast here, and I’ve always really liked that. I just, I don’t know, I just always have felt really great playing in Australia, and I feel like I kind of lean into that, and being able to have as much success as I have had here, I just feel quite comfortable on a lot of these courts.
Q. A lot of players don’t like to play the week before a slam. Obviously that’s not the case here. Is it because you started a bit late or just the way you like it?
JESSICA PEGULA: Yeah, I don’t know. I think I go back and forth. Sometimes I like the week and sometimes when I haven’t played many matches I feel like it’s good to keep that match momentum going.
The tournament here, the draw is really, really tough, so I think it will be good to test how my body’s feeling and everything. Normally I’d probably play more than one before a slam, maybe not the week before a slam. At the same time I was dealing with an injury. That’s just kind of how the schedule worked out.
Yeah, I’ll just have to deal with it I guess for this week. Excited to definitely play some matches before going into Australian Open.
Q. Are there any positives in terms of motivation that you can take from being injured badly?
PAULA BADOSA: Positives? I’m going to be very honest. Not really when you’re injured, because it’s tough. In my case, I love tennis, so maybe if it was another player, another situation, I could say maybe it was a little bit positive to step out and disconnect a bit because this is really intense.
In my case, I missed it so much. I was still following tennis as a fan also. I really wanted to come back. That’s why I was very hungry to come back last year also.
If I have to say something positive, I think there was moments last year that I was valuing maybe more to be on a court, on a center court. I remember maybe playing and looking up and seeing, wow, these people are coming to see you, they enjoy seeing you. This is maybe something I wasn’t valuing long time ago in my career before my injury.
Those small things, small details that I value them more after the injury. Maybe learning how to have a little bit more patience and waiting for my moment to come. I think maybe the injury taught me that.
Q. When you go out for a match at tour level, is there such a level of excitement because it’s so new? Do you have to try and hold some of that excitement in?
EMERSON JONES: Well, I’m excited for every match basically. Every big tournament I play, I always get really excited to get out on court and give it my best.
I do have to, like, probably tell myself just to focus just on the match, not what’s going on outside of it. I do like it when I get excited for matches ’cause it means I really want to play, yeah.
| Mondays: Soccer |
| By: Annie Peterson, @AnnieMPeterson, AP Women’s Soccer |
| Tuesdays: Tennis |
| By: Joey Dillon, @JoeyDillon, Freelance Tennis Writer |
| Wednesdays: Basketball |
| By: Howard Megdal, @HowardMegdal, The Next |
| Thursdays: Golf |
| By: Marin Dremock, @MDremock, The IX |
| Fridays: Hockey |
| By: @TheIceGarden, The Ice Garden |
| Saturdays: Gymnastics |
| By: Lela Moore, @runlelarun, Freelance Writer |
