No, Breanna Stewart isn’t exiting her prime — Eli Horowitz talks Sparks

Basketball Wednesday

Presented by The BIG EAST Conference

“I’m going to just keep doing what I do,” Stewart told the great Jackie Powell after last week’s Liberty rout of the Los Angeles Sparks, 103-68. “…I’m not really worried about what anyone else is saying or thinking, or whatever the case might be. I’m just trying to win.”

Stewart answered with a knowing smile, well aware of the line in recent analysis by ESPN’s Kevin Pelton which cited her lower three-point percentage through the first half of the 2024 WNBA season and added, almost as an aside, “it could be the first sign of Stewart aging out of her prime.”

Let’s just be clear: there is nothing wrong with analysis that is critical. Moreover, someday, even the great Breanna Stewart will age out of her prime, as will we all. But man: I do not think that’s what is happening here.

Stewart, a career 35.6% 3-point shooter, has without question struggled from deep this season relative to her past campaigns, checking in at just 26.4% so far this season. Is that down? Sure. It’s also over a 26-game span. And in fairness, she was even lower, at 22.9%, entering the second half. But that came in just 23 games.

The reasons I didn’t think much of it as a leading indicator of future performance are varied. For one thing, 3-point percentage isn’t even considered a useful indicator for future 3-point shooting at the collegiate level, where players don’t have nearly as much of a statistical track record. Studies show that free throw percentage is actually a significant better predictor of future 3-point performance. And Stewart’s free throw percentage over that 23-game span, 86.9 percent, is above her career rate. Pelton also noted that she’s making the largest percentage of her two-point attempts since 2018.

That got me remembering a relative slump Stewart had back in 2018, so I went to look it up. And indeed — in a 20-game span Stewart had during her first MVP season, one which concluded in a WNBA championship, she shot just 32.5 percent from three. What happened next? She shot 55.2 percent from three over the final 13 regular season games, north of 41 percent in the playoffs, and she and Sue Bird sprayed champagne at each other. She, uh, wasn’t post-peak.

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Incidentally, Elena Delle Donne had a virtually identical streak of poor 3-point shooting… in her 2015 MVP season. Turned out she wasn’t post-peak, either.

Of course, those seasons both came when Stewart and Delle Donne were younger. Stewart was just 24 in 2018, Delle Donne 26 in 2015. Now Stewart is forced to play at the ripe old age of 29. Still, a cursory glance at the best players in league history by win shares reveals that most of them accumulated much if not a majority of their career value at 29 and older, if you can believe it. Diana Taurasi is about half-and-half, as is Tamika Catchings, as is Candace Parker. Sylvia Fowles got better after 30. Cynthia Cooper did ALL her WNBA damage in her mid-30s. There’s not a lot of evidence that players at Stewart’s level are anywhere near finished with their peaks by the age of 29.

So no, I can’t say I’ve been particularly surprised to see Breanna Stewart, just off the typical washed-up player activity of playing as well as anyone as a co-star with A’ja Wilson for USA Basketball en route to the gold, has shot 50 percent from three on 4.7 attempts per game in her first three games of the second half. Nor were her game-deciding shots late in the win over the Aces in Las Vegas — without Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, mind you — any shock to me, either. The Liberty are the favorite to win it all, with pole position to get the all-important homecourt advantage, and Stewart is their most important player.

May we all be exiting our primes the way Breanna Stewart is right now.

Stathead Stat of the Week

Breanna Stewart had 54 rebounds in the five games of the WNBA Finals. Only two players have had more in a WNBA Finals.

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Five at The IX: Eli Horowitz, Los Angeles Sparks

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