Predicting Olympic glory. Well, trying to — Quotes from DC
By Joey Dillon
The IX: Tennis Tuesday with Joey Dillon, July 30, 2024
Howdy, y’all, and happy Tennis Tuesday! Is it safe to say we’re all ignoring our duties as adults and just rotting on the couch watching as much Olympic content as we can? No, just me? Anyhoo, we have the Sweet Sixteen set for the tennis in Paris and here’s where we stand:
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(1) Iga Swiatek vs. Wang Xiyu
Camila Osorio vs. (8) Danielle Collins
Angelique Kerber vs. (16) Leylah Fernandez
(11) Emma Navarro vs. (6) Zheng Qinwen
Elina Svitolina vs. (9) Barbora Krejcikova
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova vs. (4) Jasmine Paolini
(7) Maria Sakkari vs. (12) Marta Kostyuk
(13) Donna Vekic vs. (2) Coco Gauff
Quarter 1:
(1) Iga Swiatek vs. Wang Xiyu
Camila Osorio vs. (8) Danielle Collins
Like I mentioned last week, this is truly Iga Swiatek’s tournament to lose. Her run on clay this year, on top of how dominant she’s been at Roland Garros speaks for itself. She was utterly dominant in her second rounder over Dianne Parry and I expect the same against Wang. Who would she play for a spot in the medal rounds is a tad more up in the air. You all know how much I love Danielle Collins and she’s one of the players that can knock out Swiatek — though on clay? It’s a tall task. That being said, Camila Osorio took out Jelena Ostapenko in the first round and followed it up with a win over Dayana Yastremska. The light the Colombian is bringing to tennis at the Games is a little reminiscent of Monica Puig at the 2016 Rio Games and we saw how that ended. Still, I think we’ll finally get a Swiatek-Collins matchup that’s not on a hardcourt.
Prediction: Swiatek def. Collins
Quarter 2:
Angelique Kerber vs. (16) Leylah Fernandez
(11) Emma Navarro vs. (6) Zheng Qinwen
The biggest news of the week came from this section between Elena Rybakina withdrawing just before the start of the tournament, but that also Angelique Kerber is retiring after the Games. The draw Gods of course pitted Kerber against Naomi Osaka in the first round with the German winning the battle of former No. 1/Grand Slam champs/mothers in straight sets. She’s been getting some incredible support by the fans in attendance and I think the 2016 silver medalist could find herself back in the medal rounds if she continues to embrace the last hurrah. On the other side, Emma Navarro is facing off against Zheng Qinwen for the second time at Roland Garros. They played against one another in the 2019 junior semifinals, which was won by Navarro in three before losing to Leylah Fernandez, who ironically is playing Kerber in the third round. Zheng continued her winning ways from last week in Palermo and double bageled Sara Errani in the first round, while Navarro did have a slight scare in her second rounder against Viktoriya Tomova. Both love the clay, but it will ultimately come down to Zheng and her offense. She leads their professional head-to-head 1-0, on clay nonetheless, so if she’s not too tired from Palermo, she’s a likely one to pick. However, this quarter is by far the most intriguing to me to see who could push Swiatek or snag the bronze medal.
Prediction: Zheng def. Kerber
Quarter 3:
Elina Svitolina vs. (9) Barbora Krejcikova
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova vs. (4) Jasmine Paolini
Tokyo bronze medalist Elina Svitolina created the upset of the tournament with her second-round win over No. 5 Jessica Pegula. However, many would argue that it wasn’t that big of a shock given the American missed the entire European section of the clay season. Ukraine’s flag bearer shines when representing her country, but she’s playing an ultra confident Barbora Krejcikova, who won the Prague doubles title fresh off her Wimbledon victory and is the 2021 Roland Garros champion. Among her victims en route to that title? Svitolina. Of the third round matchups, this is the one I think you should pencil in to watch. It could be an epic. The other half of this quarter has Anna Karolina Schmiedlova, who upset Beatriz Haddad Maia against Jasmine Paolini. It doesn’t matter what surface you give Paolini, she will perform. While the Slovak had a nice surprising run, you have to expect Paolini to just continue her rise with a spot in the quarters. Even though the Italian finaled at Roland Garros and Wimbledon, I think a third championship berth just won’t happen. The Olympics bring out another level for some and my gut says Svitolina might leave shocking a lot of people.
Prediction: Svitolina def. Paolini
Quarter 4:
(7) Maria Sakkari vs. (12) Marta Kostyuk
(13) Donna Vekic vs. (2) Coco Gauff
This is actually a really fun quarter and I would be cool with any of the four potential quarterfinal matchups they could produce. We’ll start at the bottom with Coco Gauff. She’s only dropped five games in her two matches and seems to be 1. embracing the Olympic experience, especially as a flag bearer and 2. getting better with each match. While Donna Vekic also hasn’t dropped a set in her two matches, I think the athleticism and toolbox Gauff carries on clay will be too much. Who the American will face I’m 50-50 on. It’s no secret that Maria Sakkari has been a failure at the majority of the Grand Slams in her career. That might be a bit harsh to say, but when it’s ultimately mattered, she’s crashed out early. However, she’s been playing some amazing tennis in Paris, only dropping four games in her matches. Watching her so far has given me the same feeling I had when Puig started to catch fire in Rio and left with the gold medal in Rio. I doubt the same result will happen, but also look at 2008. Elena Dementieva crumbled in her two Grand Slam finals and had a match point against Serena Williams in the Wimbledon semifinals but shook that off to win gold in Beijing. Perhaps something similar is in Sakkari’s fate? Marta Kostyuk awaits and like Svitolina, she revels representing her country and is continuing to have an impressive 2024 on all surfaces. She even has a clay court win against Gauff this year so it truly is up in the air who will make the semis out of this quarter.
Prediction: Gauff def. Sakkari
Though the draw came out after last week’s TT, I did flesh out my draw and had my quarterfinals as Swiatek def. Collins, Zheng def. Osaka, Paolini def. Pegula and Gauff def. Sakkari. From there, I had Swiatek winning gold over Gauff and Zheng with the bronze. I still have six of my original eight left, but with how they’ve looked, things might be a bit different:
(1) Iga Swiatek def. (8) Danielle Collins
(6) Zheng Qinwen def. Angelique Kerber
Elina Svitolina def. (4) Jasmine Paolini
(2) Coco Gauff def. (7) Maria Sakkari
I still think Iga and Coco will face off in the final, but Elina Svitolina is the gamechanger for me. I would love to see her add any color medal for Ukraine, but I think it will be another bronze.
Gold: Iga Swiatek
Silver: Coco Gauff
Bronze: Elina Svitolina
Hopefully I’m decently accurate here, but I just want to continue seeing inspired tennis. Until then, onto links!
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This Week in Women’s Tennis
Mirra Andreeva captured her first WTA title at the UniCredit Iasi Open when compatriot Elina Avanesyan retired in the third set of their encounter. The doubles title was captured by Anna Danilina and Irina Khromacheva, who made last week’s final in Budapest and defeated Alexandra Panova and Yana Sizikova.
It was an all-Pole final at the Livesport Prague Open, with Magda Linette taking out Magdalena Frech in straight sets to win her first WTA singles title on clay and third overall. Katerina Siniakova and Barbora Krejcikova reunited for some pre-Paris preparation to win the doubles crown, taking out wildcards Bethanie Mattek-Sands and Lucie Safarova. It was Safarova’s first WTA event since Roland Garros in 2019 and TBD if the Czech will continue her comeback to the tour.
Alycia Parks was near rock bottom before the grass court swing and now she already has her second WTA 125 of the year. The American defeated Australian Maya Joint to take the Polish Open, while home favorites Weronika Falkowska and Martyna Kubka ousted Celine Naef and Nina Stojanovic to win doubles.
Aryna Sabalenka says the shoulder injury that kept her from competing at Wimbledon is healed and aims to continue her stellar hardcourt play in Washington DC this week.
Greg Garber at wtatennis.com penned how Angelique Kerber rose to the top of women’s tennis as she concludes her career in Paris, treating it just as important as the Grand Slams.
While the alternate cutoffs were a bit high for the women, the men were struggling to find doubles specialists to fill in singles openings even if they haven’t competed in the discipline for years. Issues like that re-opened the conversation about requirements and the fact Angella Okutoyi fairly won her Paris berth but was ranked too low and had her appeal to the ITF denied.
I’m rooting for everyone college this week in Paris:
The Transylvania Open will be making a return in 2025, buying the WTA 250 license from Palermo.
Danielle Collins, who’s been getting some Irish support in Paris, hysterically tells us how to pronounce her name:
Good news? Daria Saville was the queen of content at the Olympics with gems like this. Bad? She withdrew from singles and lost to top seeds Coco Gauff/Jessica Pegula in the opening round
Serena Williams, who was able to be part of the Opening Ceremonies along with Amelie Mauresmo, talked about her Olympic pin collection that she is continuing to add in Paris:
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Five at The IX: Mubadala Citi DC Open Media Day
Q. You mentioned you’ve been to this tournament before. What were some of the factors you considered in coming here versus going to the Olympics?
EMMA RADUCANU: Yeah, I would say for me, staying on one surface is important. The change of surface isn’t the best thing for me right now. In the future, maybe it would have been.
At this moment in time, I think switching to clay straight after grass, it’s such a big contrast, then back onto the hard courts, I didn’t want to risk anything. For me this option was just a lot better.
Of course, there are elements of FOMO, missing out. Watching the Olympic ceremony, everybody in the team kits, a part of you obviously wants to be there and representing your country.
I think when I think big picture, long-term, it’s the right call.
Q. This is a big difference for you compared to a year ago when you weren’t able to compete in D.C. when you were out with injury. You had a relatively good grass court season. How do you feel as far as where you’re at now, the difference that it is compared to what you were going through 12 months ago?
EMMA RADUCANU: Yeah, I think I made some pretty good strides in my game over the last few months. I started the grass season ranked outside of 200 and finished it in the top 100. For me that was relatively successful. It guaranteed me a spot hopefully in the main draw of the U.S. That was a big thing for me. I wanted to make sure I got into the slams.
I think, compared to a year ago, this time a year ago I hadn’t been touching tennis balls. I was in China actually, which was great. I got to see my family for a good month. Yeah, I didn’t touch a tennis ball until late November really.
I had, like, one week hitting sponge balls in August, then stopped because I had setbacks. Didn’t pick another one up till late November, December.
Yeah, I’m very pleased to be in the place that I am, competing, healthy, just enjoying my tennis.
Q. It’s been a little while since you’ve been here in D.C., five years or so. What were some of the factors that prompted you to come back versus going to the Olympics?
ONS JABEUR: Well, I didn’t play the Olympics because of the surface changes. Since I have, like, knee problems, honestly it would be very tough decision to take. It would probably make me not be able to play for the rest of the season. I’m managing my knee so much… Probably people don’t know what’s happening on the inside.
Yeah, it was probably very tough decision not to go to the Olympics. But very happy to be here. I haven’t played a lot of matches this year. I basically skipped the beginning of the year.
So yeah, I didn’t want to make the same kind of mistakes and go and not be 100%. If I didn’t feel like going there and win the medal, why go in the first place?
But yeah, on the positive side I’m very happy to be back here in Washington. I enjoyed playing a couple of years ago. To my fans that are here waiting to see me, I hope I can be able to play 100% and perform really well.
Q. Can you explain a little bit more about why a surface change is tricky for your knee. What makes it problematic for you?
ONS JABEUR: Yeah, I mean, with my injury, I think I need more time to get ready for the clay. I mean, in general, just changing the surfaces, it’s tougher to go from grass to clay. Since I already changed from hard to clay, clay to grass, grass to hard, it would add one more surface to me.
You can see the timing between the Olympics and Toronto is really, really tight. Honestly, I don’t feel like the schedule of this year in general suits any professional tennis players.
I don’t see I am the only one that took this decision. I know there are so many players that had different injuries, and they chose not to risk it because of that.
You’re playing clay, playing a big event like the Olympics, I think you need to be ready and perform at your best. I’m not very young any more, so I try to win as much time as I can and be able to stay as long as I can in this beautiful tour.
Q. You mentioned it was your first time in D.C. How can you weigh coming here versus going to the Olympics?
PAULA BADOSA: Well, my decision was I said it right when the list came out that I was going to play here. I’m not going to change surface that quickly, like from grass to clay, then next Toronto hard court. For my back was not the best. I have to prioritize my health.
Also for the protected rankings I had to choose in that moment. My ranking wasn’t great, so I had to choose that or the US Open. I prefer choosing on a tournament that gives me points. That was a little bit my decision.
Of course, it’s a shame I cannot play Olympics. The conditions are what it was. So I have to prioritize my back in that case.
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