Time for ‘Tennis Paradise’ — Who will take the BNP Paribas Open?
By Joey Dillon
The IX: Tennis Tuesday with Joey Dillon, March 5, 2024
Howdy, y’all, and Happy Tennis Tuesday! The Sunshine Double is officially here with the start of the BNP Paribas Open in Indian Wells, California! Known as both “Tennis Paradise” and “The Fifth Grand Slam,” the tournament revitalizes the tennis season after the post-Australian Open Swing — in my opinion.
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The draw was released and I’ll get to my predictions soon, but there’s a group of four players that are the heavy favorites to win. I feel like the last few Indian Wells have been pretty straightforward after so many years of shocking results. Looking at the draw, I expect a lot of the (top) seeds to hold up and honestly, possibly a lot of the lower half as well. I just ask that you not laugh if I’m literally 301587135% wrong.
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At the top is World No. 1 Iga Swiatek and I’m going to be honest here, my gut — don’t laugh when you see those predictions — says she won’t go far here even though she’s a former champion. The court surface in Indian Wells tends to be a bit slow and if she’s playing a night match when it’s cold? It can be a big game changer, especially if she faces off against Danielle Collins in the second round. That could be a fun blockbuster like their Melbourne showdown in January. Other than Collins, the only player that I can see taking her out is No. 10 Jelena Ostapenko, who did such at the US Open — even though Swiatek’s Melbourne upsetter, No. 26 Linda Noskova could await in the third round. The Latvian is having a standout year, placing fifth currently in the WTA’s Race rankings. A big hitter will be able to stop Swiatek and is there anyone with a bigger ground game than Ostapenko?
Next is reigning champion Elena Rybakina, who had to give a walkover in Dubai to Jasmine Paolini — someone she could face off in the fourth round. She’s had a solid 2024 campaign already, sitting at No. 2 in the Race with two titles and another runner-up finish. She has a pretty favorable draw to go deep in the second week, save for a potential second round matchup with 2021 champion, wildcard Paula Badosa. Still, Rybakina is among the WTA’s current “Big Three,” and it would take a massive upset to not at least pencil her in quarterfinals, at worst. The fourth eighth of the draw is where I think we’ll see a huge upset. No. 12 Beatriz Haddad Maia could find some form and outgrind a lot of the players in the section, but I just can’t see No. 6 Ons Jabeur holding up her end of the seeding. She was struggling mightily in the Middle East, crying through knee pain and is 10 days enough to get better? I don’t think so. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova and Marta Kostyuk — Nos. 10 and 11 in the Race, respectively — just had a fantastic tussle in the San Diego semifinals and I’m penciling a rematch in the fourth round.
The third quarter of the draw is highlighted by No. 3 Coco Gauff and Australian Open runner-up, No. 8 Zheng Qinwen. Former champions Victoria Azarenka and Naomi Osaka both find themselves in this section that I wouldn’t be surprised to have seeds get decimated, particularly in Gauff’s portion of the draw. Last year, No. 19 Sorana Cirstea had a great Sunshine Double, while players like Yuan Yue, Wang Xiyu and Anna Karolina Schmiedlova are all coming off of a strong week in Austin. Then there’s players like Sloane Stephens and No. 11 Daria Kasatkina, who can meet again after a fun three-setter Down Under. While Gauff is heavily favored by most to at least make the semi-finals, I’m most curious to see how Naomi Osaka will do. Indian Wells is the place she won her first WTA title in 2018 and began her meteoric rise to superstardom. Sure, her return from maternity leave hasn’t been the most ideal, but her taking wildcards into the Middle East tournaments shows how hungry and dedicated she is.
Lastly, the fourth quarter has Australian Open champion, No. 2 Aryna Sabalenka leading the pack. The 2023 runner-up was knocked out in her Dubai opener by Donna Vekic, but she has a draw where she can play into some form if she needs to. She could face two Ukrainians in No. 30 Dayana Yastremska and No. 16 Elina Svitolina back-to-back, but No. 23 Emma Navarro continues to be a silent killer up the rankings and just reached the semi-finals last week in San Diego. This quarter also features No. 5 Jessica Pegula, another San Diego semifinalist and No. 9 Maria Sakkari. Those two could actually meet in the fourth round, which would be quite the matchup as Sakkari has picked up Pegula’s former coach, David Witt. Pegula has a potential second round match with a resurgent wildcard Karolina Pliskova, which could be a big upset in the making, too. Still, Sabalenka is ultimately the won to beat throughout the entire fortnight as she currently stands atop the Race podium.
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So, without further ado, my infamous predictions without qualifiers:
Round of 16
(1) Iga Swiatek def. (18) Madison Keys
(10) Jelena Ostapenko def. (6) Ons Jabeur
(4) Elena Rybakina def. (13) Jasmine Paolini
(22) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova def. (31) Marta Kostyuk
(8) Zheng Qinwen def. Sloane Stephens
(3) Coco Gauff def. Naomi Osaka
(5) Jessica Pegula def. (9) Maria Sakkari
(2) Aryna Sabalenka def. (23) Emma Navarro
Quarterfinals
(1) Iga Swiatek def. (10) Jelena Ostapenko
(4) Elena Rybakina def. (22) Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
(3) Coco Gauff def. (8) Zheng Qinwen
(2) Aryna Sabalenka def. (5) Jessica Pegula
Semi-Finals
(4) Elena Rybakina def. (1) Iga Swiatek
(2) Aryna Sabalenka def. (3) Coco Gauff
Championship
(2) Aryna Sabalenka def. (4) Elena Rybakina
Onto links!
This Week in Women’s Tennis
Katie Boulter won the biggest title of her career at the Cymbiotika San Diego Open, taking out Marta Kostyuk in a three-set battle. The doubles title was won by Nicole Melichar-Martinez and Ellen Perez, who ended a long skid of runner-up finishes to rout Jessica Pegula and Desirae Krawczyk.
It was an all-Chinese final at the ATX Open in Austin, Texas with Yuan Yue winning her first career WTA title over Wang Xiyu. Olivia Gadecki and Olivia Nicholls of Great Britain defeated Katarzyna Kawa and Bibiane Schoofs for the doubles crown.
The LPGA announced a collaboration with Naomi Osaka’s production company, Hana Kuma, to strengthen the tour’s brand by piloting a marketing program with eight athletes. I’d like to see Osaka do something like this in tennis after this and her ownership in the North Carolina Courage soccer team.
TW: sexual assault. The USTA’s lawsuit with Kylie McKenzie is getting a little heated after they asked for Pam Shriver’s testimony to be dismissed.
Venus Williams, Caroline Wozniacki and Emma Raducanu were among the wildcard announcements for the Miami Open.
It takes a lot of guts to handle the ITF World Tour and Marlene Helgo had quite the week in Helsinki last week:
Max Eisenbud, the longtime agent of Maria Sharapova, was a guest on Andy Roddick’s Served podcast and spoke how Tiger Woods had a significant influence on Sharapova’s brand strategy. Speaking of podcasts, WTA Insider spoke with Jasmine Paolini on theirs after the Italian’s big win in Dubai.
Join me and enter to win a copy of the new Althea Gibson biography thanks to Sloane Stephens!
The Porsche Tennis Grand Prix continues to add starpower with Coco Gauff, Ons Jabeur and Marketa Vondrousova all signing up to play in Stuttgart.
Danielle Collins, I will forever stan you:
Serena Williams continues to revel in retirement and was a guest at Paris Fashion Week for Balmain and Off-White’s shows.
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Tweet of the Week
Get to know the legendary Peachy Kellmeyer. Fun fact, there’s a boardroom at the WTA headquarters named in her honor.
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